Is Munir planning to oust Pakistan's President? A sense of deja vu in India's neighbourhood

Pakistan, no stranger to military coups, is once again abuzz with speculation as fresh rumours of an impending takeover circulate in the media. The chatter coincides with the 47th anniversary of General Zia-ul-Haq’s infamous 1977 coup and is further fueled by claims from Pakistani journalist Azaz Syed that General Munir is actively positioning himself to assume the presidency.

Moreover, Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir’s rare elevation to the rank of Field Marshal has solidified his position as the most powerful man in the country. Since Pakistan’s creation in 1947, only one other officer, General Ayub Khan, has been promoted to Field Marshal, and he received the rank after seizing power in a 1958 coup.

Asim Munir’s power play in Pakistan
Munir, only the second Field Marshal in Pakistan’s 78-year history, as per experts, may have promoted himself to strengthen his grip on the military and to emphasize the military's supremacy over the government.

Unlike the Army Chief, who can technically be removed by the Prime Minister, a Field Marshal in Pakistan is untouchable. The title comes with lifetime tenure, full military privileges, and immunity from civilian or judicial oversight.

While Pakistan is nominally a democracy, the army has remained the ultimate power broker. Since the ousting of former Prime Minister Imran Khan and the ensuing political vacuum, the military — under Munir — has steadily expanded its role beyond security into economic policy, media management and judicial oversight. This Field Marshal title reinforces that shift.

Historically, Pakistan’s military has used external conflict, especially with India, as a tool to regain legitimacy and centralize authority. From Ayub Khan’s incursion into Kashmir in 1965 to Pervez Musharraf’s Kargil adventure in 1999, each confrontation has been repurposed to galvanize nationalist sentiment and position the military as Pakistan’s only credible institution.

In Munir’s case, Operation Sindoor appears to have served a similar purpose. Though militarily damaging, it has been reimagined through domestic channels as an act of resolve in the face of Indian aggression. Munir’s promotion thus completes the cycle: a setback transformed into a symbolic triumph, used to cement control in both the military and the political landscape.

Imran Khan’s ouster
Imran Khan’s ouster, incarceration, and exclusion from the political process have largely been orchestrated with the implicit — if not overt — support of the military. His populist appeal, particularly among the youth and urban middle classes, posed a long-term threat to military primacy in national politics. By neutralizing Khan and then elevating Munir to Field Marshal, the army has sent a definitive message: there is no space for parallel power centers. The democratic process is once again subordinated to institutional supremacy.

In the short term, this may bring a veneer of stability. In the long term, however, it may exacerbate the cycle of repression and resistance, and possibly even lead to military dictatorship. Many were already calling his promotion as a soft coup by the military, as per an ET Online report in May.

47th anniversary of Gen Ziaul Haq’s coup
The timing of the recent chatter about Asif Ali Zardari’s potential ouster eerily coincides with the 47th anniversary of General Zia-ul-Haq’s historic 1977 coup, evoking memories of political upheaval and military intervention in Pakistan’s turbulent history.

In 1977, COAS Gen Ziaul Haq seized power just when the opposition Pakistan National Alliance, which was holding a national protest movement against the allegedly rigged general elections, was about to sign a pact with Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto’s Pakistan Peoples Party to call off the agitation.

Pakistan minister responds to claims
Reacting to the chatter, Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi said, people should not pay heed to "social media speculations".

He, in fact, said that for the first time, politicians, government, and military establishment are on the same page in the country, as per a Geo TV report.

Pakistan's history of coups and assassinations
2007 - Two-time Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto is assassinated in a gun and bomb attack after holding an election rally in Rawalpindi. A few months before her death, she survives a suicide bomb assassination attempt in Karachi, where at least 139 people are killed in one of the country's deadliest attacks.

1999 - Former army chief Pervez Musharraf seizes power in a bloodless coup. He is sworn in as president and head of state in June 2001. He resigns in 2008 and Asif Ali Zardari, Benazir Bhutto's husband, takes over as president.

1988 - Military ruler President Mohammad Zia ul-Haq is killed when the Hercules C-130 aircraft carrying him crashes in mysterious circumstances. Conspiracy theorists have suggested a case of mangoes put aboard the plane shortly before takeoff contained a timer device that released gas that knocked out the cockpit crew.

1979 - Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, the father of Benazir who was elected as prime minister in 1970, is hanged on a disputed conviction for conspiring to commit a political murder by Zia ul-Haq.

1977 - Zia ul-Haq seizes power after a coup against the Bhutto government. He puts Bhutto under house arrest, imposes martial law, suspends the constitution and bans political parties.

1973 - Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto elected as prime minister, taking over from General Yahya Khan.

1958 - In Pakistan's first military coup, Governor-General Iskander Mirza enforces martial law with General Ayub Khan as chief martial law administrator. Ayub Khan later assumes the presidency and sacks Mirza, who is exiled.

1951 - Pakistan's first Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan, after the 1947 partition of India, is shot dead at a political rally in Rawalpindi.