Washington | US President Donald Trump repeatedly said during his successful campaign for a second term that he could end the war in Ukraine “in 24 hours.” But since his January 20 inauguration, the road to a peace deal has been fraught with changing dynamics among Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
A summit between Trump and Putin set for Friday in Alaska could now be a pivotal moment in the 3 1/2-year-old war.
“At the end of that meeting, probably the first two minutes, I'll know exactly whether or not a deal can be made,” Trump said Monday.
Trump's rhetoric toward both Zelenskyy and Putin has evolved this year.
At the start of his second term, Trump was conciliatory toward Putin, for whom he has long shown admiration. But as Putin remained intransigent and rejected an unconditional truce proposed by Trump, the Republican leader has expressed increasing exasperation with the Russian leader, criticising him for his unbudging stance on US-led peace efforts and for prolonging the war.
Until recently, Trump repeatedly said Russia seemed more willing than Ukraine to get a deal done.
Trump appears to have softened toward Zelenskyy after a February confrontation in the Oval Office. And, in a reversal, he promised at some point to provide Ukraine with badly needed Patriot air defence missiles under a deal that would see NATO allies in Europe deliver them from their stock, to be replaced by future US supplies.
Russia's bigger army is pressing on parts of the 1,000-kilometre front line, where thousands of soldiers on both sides have died since the Kremlin ordered the full-scale invasion in February 2022.
June brought the highest monthly civilian casualties in the past three years, with 232 people killed and 1,343 wounded in Ukraine, the UN human rights mission in Ukraine said Thursday.
A look at what Trump has said so far during his second term:
Jan 31: “We want to end that war. That war would have not started if I was president.” Trump says his new administration has already had “very serious” discussions with Russia and that he and Putin could soon take “significant” action toward ending the conflict.
Feb 19: “A Dictator without Elections, Zelenskyy better move fast or he is not going to have a Country left.” Trump's harsh words for Zelenskyy on his Truth Social platform drew criticism from Democrats and even some Republicans in the United States, where defending Ukraine from Russian aggression has traditionally had bipartisan support.
Zelenskyy said Trump was falling into a Russian disinformation trap — and he was quickly admonished by Vice President JD Vance about the perils of publicly criticising the president.
Feb 28: “You're gambling with World War III. And what you're doing is very disrespectful to the country, this country that's backed you far more than a lot of people said they should have.” Trump and Vance berated Zelenskyy, accusing him of not showing gratitude after he challenged Vance on the question of diplomacy with Putin.
The Oval Office argument, broadcast globally, led to the rest of Zelenskyy's White House visit being cancelled and called into question US support for Ukraine. A few days later, Trump temporarily paused military aid to Ukraine to pressure Zelenskyy to seek peace.
March 30: “I don't think he's going to go back on his word. You're talking about Putin. I don't think he's going to go back on his word. I've known him for a long time. We've always gotten along well.” Speaking aboard Air Force One, Trump said he trusts Putin to hold up his end of a potential peace deal. The comments were among the last positive remarks he made about the Kremlin leader this year.
April 24: “I am not happy with the Russian strikes on KYIV. Not necessary, and very bad timing. Vladimir, STOP! 5,000 soldiers a week are dying. Lets get the Peace Deal DONE!” In a Truth Social post, Trump was reacting to Russia attacking Kyiv with a barrage of missiles and drones. It was the first of his rare criticisms of Putin amid increased Russian attacks on Ukraine.
April 29: “A lot of his people are dying. They're being killed, and I feel very badly about it.” Trump addressed the toll on Ukrainians during an interview with ABC News after he met with Zelenskyy on the sidelines of Pope Francis' funeral. It was the first time the leaders had met since the Oval Office spat and signalled a shift in Trump's attitude toward the Ukrainian president.
May 25: “I've always had a very good relationship with Vladimir Putin of Russia, but something has happened to him. He has gone absolutely CRAZY!” Trump's Truth Social post made it clear he was losing patience with Putin as Moscow pounded Kyiv and other cities with drones and missiles in stepped-up aerial attacks.
June 25: “He was very nice actually. We had a little rough times, sometimes. He was ... Couldn't have been nicer. I think he'd like to see an end to this, I do.” Trump had a closed-door meeting with Zelenskyy during a NATO summit in The Hague. Trump's comments to reporters later also opened the possibility of sending Patriot air-defence missiles to Ukraine.
July 8: “We get a lot of bull—— thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth. He's very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless.” Trump also said he's “not happy” with Putin and that Moscow's war in Ukraine is “killing a lot of people” on both sides. Trump's comments during a Cabinet meeting came a day after he said the US would send more weapons to Ukraine.
It was a dramatic reversal after earlier announcing a pause in delivering previously approved firepower to Kyiv, a decision made amid concerns that US military stockpiles had declined too much.
July 13: “I am very disappointed with President Putin, I thought he was somebody that meant what he said. He'll talk so beautifully and then he'll bomb people at night. We don't like that.” Trump's remarks to reporters came as Russia intensified aerial attacks on Ukraine.
July 14: “I don't want to say he's an assassin, but he's a tough guy. It's been proven over the years. He's fooled a lot of people before.” Trump pushed harder against Putin during an Oval Office meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. He said if there was no deal to end the war within 50 days, the US would impose “secondary tariffs,” targeting Russia's trading partners to try to isolate Moscow.
Trump and Rutte also discussed a rejuvenated pipeline for US weapons. European allies plan to buy military equipment for transfer to Ukraine.
Aug 11: “I get along with Zelenskyy, but, you know, I disagree with what he's done, very, very severely, disagree. This is a war that should have never happened.” Trump dismissed the idea of Zelenskyy joining the summit with Putin, declaring the Ukrainian president had been to “a lot of meetings” without managing to halt a war that Russia started.
He also lashed out at Zelenskyy for saying Ukraine's constitution bans giving up any land.
“I was a little bothered by the fact that Zelenskyy was saying, Well, I have to get 'constitutional approval.' I mean, he's got approval to go into war and kill everybody, but he needs approval to do a land swap? Because there'll be some land swapping going on.” Trump also noted that “I thought it was very respectful that the president of Russia is coming to our country as opposed to us going to his country or even a third party place.”
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