Weekly food shop price warning to UK households as food price inflation to spike

Millions of households have been warned to brace themselves for a further big rise in the cost of theweekly shop.

Industry experts the Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD) is now forecasting that foodprice inflation will top 5% later in the summer, in a further blow to families who are already feeling the pinch. It added that prices will “significantly” outstrip the wider cost of living. The IGD’s predictions follows official data from the Office for National Statistics last week that food price inflation rose for a third month to hit 4.5% - the highest since February 2024. Among the items that are rising fastest in price are bread and cakes, meat, and milk, cheese and eggs.

For example, meat prices rose by 5.7% in June, from 4.8% in May, while cooking oil prices surged from 3.8% to 5.1%, according to the ONS. And if you thought the price of sweet treats had shot up, that is confirmed by data showing inflation in a wide category that includes sugar, jam and chocolate stood at 9% in June, although it has been higher in the past.

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There are multiple reasons given for why grocery prices are on the way back up, from business rates to the extreme weather. Higher global commodity prices are also a factor.

The IGD predicts food price inflation will peak at 5.1% in the late summer, and then remain high for a while. The good news is the IGD then estimates they will decline to between 1.6% and 2.6% in 2026.

Rising food prices are causing a big headache for households and now top their concerns, overtaking worries about energy costs. According to IGD’s latest data, 83% of shoppers now expect food prices in shops to keep rising.

This mounting unease is reflected in the IGD Shopper Confidence Index, which dipped to plus 1 in June, down two points from May. One in four expect their financial situation to worsen in the year ahead, rising sharply to 41% among lower-income households.

This nervousness is not what retailers want to hear as they begin to look beyond the summer and the busy period up to Christmas, when many make a big chunk of their money. Michael Freedman, head of economic and consumer insight at IGD, said: “Businesses must adapt to shifting customer behaviours, as we see more people prioritise value, convenience, and memorable experiences.”

Balwinder Dhoot, director of sustainability and growth at the Food and Drink Federation, said: “The pressure on food and drink manufacturers continues to build. With many key ingredients like chocolate, butter, coffee, beef, and lamb climbing in price – alongside high energy and labour expenses – these rising costs are gradually making their way into the prices shoppers pay at the tills.”

Higher grocery bills will compound an ongoing cost of living crisis for millions of households in the UK, given a jump in water bills and other outlays in "Awful April", while energy costs are still a major headache for many people.

While food inflation has picked-up, it is nothing compared to a couple of years ago, when prices were rocketing. According to the ONS, prices peaked at more than 19% in April 2023.